Zachmann.NET
Back to the Future
Developers: don't just mope and cope about the economic downturn, start doing some fun, creative programming.
The Great Depression of the 1930s was the most severe economic downturn ever in the United States, but the current slump already shows every sign of being the worst since that calamity, and no one knows how much worse it might get before it's over. The current meltdown is already creating painful dislocation, but it will also create some once-in-a-lifetime opportunities -- including some for software developers perceptive enough to see some great software ideas in the Great Depression.
I know what you're thinking. The first modern, digital-stored program computer and software wasn't invented until 1945, well after the Depression had been overwhelmed by the military boom of the World War II economy of the early '40s. What sort of software ideas can possibly be found in the Great Depression of the 1930s?
Escape from Reality
Well, the first and most interesting set of software ideas from the Depression can be found in Hollywood. The movie industry was not immune to the downturn, but it did relatively well and solidified its position in the American (and world) psyche during the 1930s. As the "Hollywood in the Depression" page on the University of Virginia Web site puts it:
"As unemployment reached an all-time high in 1933, this decade, sandwiched between the roaring twenties and World War II, left little to be highlighted other than the dismal consequences of the Great Depression. From failed farmers to discouraged businessmen to working mothers to displaced children, the Depression between 1929 and 1939 invaded homes across the nation. Twenty-five percent of the country was unemployed at the peak of the Depression in 1933 while even more just barely made ends meet. Despite the excruciating economic hardship faced by nearly all of the country, 60 to 70 million Americans still packed into theaters each week. This phenomenon forces the question: Why go to a movie during such a troubled time? What made sitting in a theater for an hour and a half worth a hard-earned 15 cents?"
Radio, too, thrived despite the collapse of RCA stock in the Crash of '29. Although radio hardware sales took a while to recover, the fledgling radio networks developed and grew throughout the Depression period. In the decade that followed, radio and motion pictures created the first real mass culture and emerged as the first mass market to span a continent. No coincidence, it was in the midst of this ferment that modern advertising was born and flourished as well.
Radio and movies provided escape from the reality of widespread unemployment and poverty. They offered -- at a relatively low cost -- diversion, entertainment and inspiration for millions of people. They were bright lights in the dreary landscape of the Great Depression. And they were based upon and enabled by the hottest new technologies of their day.
The other main source and solace of the time was simply getting together with other people to hang out, party, play, listen to music and enjoy each other's company. Folks who grew up during the Depression often look back fondly at the simple sense of community that was so typical of the time -- and so lacking in the post WWII boom and tract-house suburbanization of the 1950s.
Back on Task
So what has this got to do with software? Plenty! Think radio and movies. Think entertainment. Think community. Think social interaction. Think learning. Think fun. Think about all the things that the underlying digital technology of today makes possible but that have not yet been done.
Look beyond PlayStation and Xbox, beyond iTunes and iPhone, beyond "Guitar Hero" and "Halo," beyond Facebook and Twitter. Close your eyes and try to imagine all the as-yet-unrealized possibilities in entertainment, in personal interaction, in play, in amusement and in learning that are just waiting for the right software-development ideas to make them happen.
Market bottoms and periods of economic disaster, barring the complete collapse of civilization, are also periods of fantastic opportunity. The biggest winners in the subsequent period of recovery are not those who run for cover, but those who look for the pony in the manure pile with their eyes on the possible future.
OK, sure, if you're a software developer who's about to be dumped by Very Big Financial Company Inc. because portfolio losses are enormous and profits are plummeting; or by Grand New VC-Funded Startup LLC because the mezzanine round of financing just isn't going to happen after all, it's easy to be consumed by worry about how to pay the mortgage. But it may also be just the kick in the pants many developers need to get out of the corporate wage-slave rut and go create some really kick-bottom software that turns catastrophe into opportunity.
So why mope or merely cope when you can dream and scheme? Look at the way folks who succeeded during the Great Depression did it, and apply those lessons to put your skills as a developer to work doing something really interesting, something you'll really enjoy doing.
About the Author
William F. Zachmann, born before the modern digital computer was invented, has lived with them (and made his living off of them) all his life. He was director of research for The Forum Corp. in the mid-'70s and senior vice president of corporate research at International Data Corp. (IDC) in the '80s. He has a copy of Windows 1.0 that Bill Gates signed for him the night it was rolled out at Comdex Fall '85. Zachmann is now director of Canopus Research Inc. He programs in C# using Visual Studio 2005 with a focus on ASP.NET and SQL Server 2005.