Zachmann.NET
Mastering the Game
The 2-D, page-oriented Web browser will eventually be replaced by 3-D, VR-rendering, client-side software. When will it happen. What form will it take.
In the prior issue we talked about Second Life, Linden Research's Internet-accessible, 3-D virtual reality (VR) world. We noted that Second Life's Linden Scripting Language (LSL) gives Microsoft-oriented programmers and developers a context sufficiently familiar to let us leverage existing skills, yet different enough to stretch us into new territory as well. But getting into Second Life is crucial for Microsoft's future, too.
One way or another, the 2-D, page-oriented Web browser paradigm that has dominated for more than a decade will eventually be replaced by 3-D, VR-rendering, client-side software. The question isn't if it will happen, but when, and in precisely what form.
Microsoft won the "Browser Wars" of the mid-to-late '90s and dodged the bullet of the anti-trust action that accompanied it. In U.S. v. Microsoft, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) -- egged on and very heavily lobbied by Microsoft's competitors -- tried to shoot a silver bullet through Microsoft's heart. The DOJ alleged that the close integration of Microsoft IE into Windows was anti-competitive and violated Federal anti-trust statutes. Microsoft didn't exactly win that lawsuit, but it certainly didn't lose it either.
Microsoft's success in dodging that bullet and overcoming Netscape's early big lead in Web browser client software in the mid-'90s was a key to the company's continued
software dominance. But Microsoft's future hinges now on doing the same with the coming transition from 2-D Web browsers to 3-D VR rendering clients. If anything, this shift will be an even more critical and more urgent challenge for Microsoft than the browser wars.
Render or Die
The high stakes are driven by the discontinuity between today's 2-D Web browser and the coming paradigm shift to 3-D VR renderers. It promises to be a tricky jump that not all companies will survive. At the same time, Microsoft is finding it increasingly difficult to get decisively out ahead of key competitors in the more traditional Web 2.0 world already.
Microsoft only recently introduced bits capable of really taking on the open source world of asynchronous JavaScript and XML, in the form of Silverlight. Silverlight has tremendous promise, but it's just starting to get traction against open source rivals.
The competitive situation in Internet search is an even greater challenge for Redmond. Google has jumped out well ahead of Microsoft -- farther than Netscape did with its browser 10-plus years ago. Microsoft Live search, to date, has gained little ground on Google's early big lead, even though Google's counter attacks on the Microsoft Office suite haven't noticeably damaged Redmond yet, either.
Still, Microsoft has a stunningly successful record when it comes to beating competitors with an initial lead in an emerging software sector. Historical examples abound: Internet Explorer vs. Netscape, Word vs. WordPerfect, Excel vs. Lotus 1-2-3, SQL Server vs. Dbase (and Oracle), Visual Studio vs. Borland Delphi.
But in the fast-changing world of emerging technology, no victory is permanent. Like a sports franchise that wins a championship, the team will start the next season with a 0-0 record. But unlike a sports team, Microsoft must deal with the shifting rules of the game, as the underlying technology evolves.
For the decade ahead, the transition from the 2-D browser to the 3-D VR renderer client will define the game. Microsoft's ability to master that game is crucial to the company's future. Right now, though, Linden Research is out way ahead of Microsoft.
SL and RL
All this made it fascinating for me to attend the most ambitious Microsoft event yet held in Second Life (SL). Microsoft C# Day on the company's Visual Studio Island in SL was held on Dec. 8. About 40 to 50 folks were there for an SL reprise of a similar event that Microsoft had done in real life (RL). Reflecting on the event afterward, three things were apparent.
First, as a collective entity, Microsoft is quite clueless about SL, how significant it is and how necessary mastering this environment is to Microsoft's future prospects. Even stodgy old IBM has extensive facilities in SL, somewhere in the ballpark of 15to 20 sims. Microsoft has just one.
Second, there are at least a few individuals at Microsoft who do get it and who are trying very hard to bring Microsoft into SL with, as yet, very little support or commitment from Redmond. They understand, far better than Microsoft's increasingly bureaucratized management, just how important all this is, in part because they have substantial, practical experience in Second Life.
Third, Microsoft needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
Microsoft is spending a ton fighting yesterday's Web 2.0 battles, yet invests a pittance on the area most crucial to Microsoft's future. Microsoft very much needs to get a second life, to support the Microsoft pioneers in SL with serious resources and to start to learn its way around SL now -- before it's too late!
About the Author
William F. Zachmann, born before the modern digital computer was invented, has lived with them (and made his living off of them) all his life. He was director of research for The Forum Corp. in the mid-'70s and senior vice president of corporate research at International Data Corp. (IDC) in the '80s. He has a copy of Windows 1.0 that Bill Gates signed for him the night it was rolled out at Comdex Fall '85. Zachmann is now director of Canopus Research Inc. He programs in C# using Visual Studio 2005 with a focus on ASP.NET and SQL Server 2005.