News
Global Smartphone Market Expected to Double in 2011
Market researcher International Data Corp. is forecasting shipments of 450 million smartphones worldwide in 2011, up 49.2 percent over the 303.4 million units sold in 2010. The global smartphone market is projected to double as consumers and enterprise users trade up to phones with more advanced features, according to a new report, released today.
The open source Android operating system is expected to come out on top in 2011 with Android devices claiming 39.5 percent of the market, followed by Nokia Symbian with 20.9 percent, Apple iOS with 15.7 percent, Research in Motion Blackberry with 14.9 percent and Microsoft Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile with 5.5 percent.
By 2015, IDC forecasts Android smartphones will account for 45.4 percent of the worldwide market, followed by devices running the Microsoft Windows Phone/Windows Mobile operating systems with a 20.9 percent market share.
"For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party," said Ramon Llamas, IDC's senior research analyst for the Mobile Devices Technology and Trends group. "This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."
As for the other OS newcomer to the smartphone field, Windows Phone 7, IDC points to the recent deal struck between Microsoft and Nokia to be a catalyst for strong growth for the smartphone brand.
The assumption that Microsoft will have 20.9 percent of the market share by 2015 has come under fire by critics, including Redmond magazine columnist Mary Jo Foley. In a recent blog post on ZDNet, she points out that IDC is assuming all Nokia users will switch from the Symbian OS to Windows Phone 7 devices, which may be too much of a leap of faith.
"I'm sure Microsoft is counting on getting a hefty share boost from its $1 billion-plus investment in Nokia, but will the Softies manage to hold onto almost all the Symbian base, as Nokia tries to wean them from Symbian? I'd think, given some Nokia users' skepticism about the sanity of the deal, more than a few might go Android or iOS," Foley wrote.
She also points out that a lot can happen in IDC's four year projection window, when concerned with consumer devices and new technology. Unknown devices and new companies jumping into the relatively young business will more than likely play a factor in final sales numbers.
ZDNet's Larry Dignan also points out the fact that the Nokia-Microsoft deal probably won't bear fruit for another year. "Let's see, Nokia won't have a barrage of Windows Phone 7 phones in the market until 2012," wrote Dignan in a blog post. "Nokia is essentially taking a year off while other handset makers (Samsung, HTC, RIM, Apple, Motorola) keep pumping out smartphones. Nokia is a no-show in the U.S. and it's possible that folks that leave the handset maker in 2011 may not come back."
Here is the complete breakdown of IDC's projected forecast:
Operating System | 2011 Market Share | 2015 Market Share | Android | 39.5% | 45.4% | BlackBerry | 14.9% | 13.7% | iOS | 15.7% | 15.3% | Symbian | 20.9% | .2% | Windows Mobile | 5.5% | 20.9% | Other | 3.5% | 4.6% | Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker |